The phrase "markets can fall as well as rise," is a familiar
enough one to investors, but how often do we really think about
the downside? While most investors are happy enough to see
their
stocks go up and up, no one can predict for sure how far an
individual stock will rise or, perhaps more importantly, how
far it will fall.
Many investors try to cancel out the risk that they have picked
a bad stock by buying a number of different stocks, adding
bonds to the portfolio or buying stocks of companies in
different countries around the world. Investment professionals
call this process diversification and it is traditionally
regarded as the best way to ensure that, overall, a portfolio
will generate a positive return.
There is some evidence, however, that even if an investor
diversifies a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds
internationally, it will not be enough to prevent an overall
fall in value in a
bear market.
One of the main reasons for this lies in the globalisation of
the world economy. Governments and companies are increasingly
working to a global agenda so that securities listed on
different international markets are responding to similar
fundamentals. Meanwhile, individual investors are acting on
information that is disseminated around the world in seconds.
What this means is that a fall in one market is more likely to
trigger a similar reaction in markets around the world. This
risk is particularly acute when investor sentiment suggests
that one or more of the main markets is overvalued. The threat
then is of a general bear market, or worse still, a global
recession.
As investors have become more concerned about these global
factors, interest in alternative investment strategies has
increased. What investors are seeking are investment strategies
that respond differently to market factors from an ordinary
investment in stocks and bonds. In investment terms, these are
called non-correlated asset classes.